The best thing about prediction markets: the price is the probability, which makes them easy to read once you see it. Educational only.
Price = implied probability
If a "Yes" contract that pays $1 trades at 72 cents, the market implies about a 72% chance. At 5 cents, ~5%; at 90 cents, ~90%. Divide the price by the payout to get the probability.
Yes and No add up
"Yes" at 72 cents implies "No" around 28 cents — together they sum to roughly the full payout (minus any fees/spread). If they don't, there may be a spread or fee to account for.
Comparing to betting odds
Traditional odds (like +150 or 2/1) express the same probabilities in a different format. Prediction-market prices are often more intuitive because they read directly as a percentage. See markets vs betting.
Watch the spread
The gap between the buy and sell price (the spread) is a real cost, especially in thin markets. A wide spread means you pay more to enter and exit — factor it into any edge you think you have.
Probability isn't certainty
A 70% market still loses 30% of the time. Reading odds correctly means treating them as probabilities over many events, not guarantees on one — a key part of managing risk.
FAQ
How do I convert a prediction market price to a probability?
Divide the price by the payout. A "Yes" contract paying $1 that trades at 72 cents implies about a 72% probability. Yes and No prices sum to roughly the full payout.
Are prediction market odds the same as betting odds?
They express the same probabilities in a different format. Prediction-market prices read directly as a percentage, which many people find more intuitive than fractional or American odds.